The Global scenario Group is a network








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titreThe Global scenario Group is a network
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date de publication23.10.2016
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Great Transition



GSG scenarios

The Global scenario Group is a network, founded by the Stockholm Environment Institute in order to gather the expertise in scenario techniques and quantitative analysis. The project of the GSG is to shed light on the way leading to a sustainable world. To do so the GSG develops a framework for the construction of global visions of the future and contrasted world evolutions (all supposed to be compatible with the current trends). Then they developed further the potential linked to the "Conventional Worlds" scenarios (focus on a reference scenario and a policy reform scenario) and to the "Great Transition" scenarios (focus on radical paradigm change).

Project


Commanditaire

/

Coordinator

Paul Raskin (Global Scenario Group1 et Stockholm Environment Institute)

Project duration

From 1995 to 2002 (three reports)

Information sources


Publications (reports)

Technical report (quantitative aspect ; not much on the qualitative methodology)


Why? (Project goal)


Predictive, explorative and normative scenarios

What? (Scenario content/analysis)


Scale

Global

Main focus

Transition towards SD

Time horizon

(1990-)2068

Temporal nature

Chain scenarios

Variables

population, economy, poverty, energy, agriculture, food, spatial planning, woods, freshwater, pollution, material and waste, etc.

Main drivers

Worldviews (evolutionary, catastrophic and transformational perspective)

Dynamics

Both trend and peripheral

Level of deviation

High

Diversity of perspectives

No (not in one scenario, but in the diversity of scenarios)

Inclusion of norms

Explicit (scenarios based on different types of worldviews)

Level of integration


High

How? (Process design/ methodology)


Quantitative approach / tools

Model (PoleStar)

Qualitative approach / tools

Storylines

Participative approach / tools

No (experts nework)

Process/output focus

Output

Interface

The 100 pages book “Great Transition” (+ ?)

Scenario methodology


Trend projection, backcasting, (+ ?)
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